| 1. Identificação | |
| Tipo de Referência | Artigo em Revista Científica (Journal Article) |
| Site | plutao.sid.inpe.br |
| Código do Detentor | isadg {BR SPINPE} ibi 8JMKD3MGPCW/3DT298S |
| Identificador | J8LNKAN8RW/36KNKML |
| Repositório | dpi.inpe.br/plutao@80/2009/12.22.14.33.18 |
| Última Atualização | 2010:04.16.18.03.15 (UTC) administrator |
| Repositório de Metadados | dpi.inpe.br/plutao@80/2009/12.22.14.33.19 |
| Última Atualização dos Metadados | 2021:02.10.18.35.12 (UTC) administrator |
| Chave Secundária | INPE--PRE/ |
| DOI | 10.1175/2009JCLI2317.1 |
| ISSN | 0894-8755 |
| Rótulo | lattes: 4978912302419377 5 ShongweOldHurBoeCoe:2009:SoAf |
| Chave de Citação | ShongweOlHuBoCoAa:2009:SoAf |
| Título | Projected changes in mean and extreme precipitation in Africa under global warming. Part I: Southern Africa  |
| Ano | 2009 |
| Mês | July |
| Data de Acesso | 02 maio 2024 |
| Tipo Secundário | PRE PI |
| Número de Arquivos | 1 |
| Tamanho | 2718 KiB |
| 2. Contextualização | |
| Autor | 1 Shongwe, M. E. 2 Oldenborgh, Geert Jan van 3 Hurk, B. J. J. M. van den 4 Boer, B. de 5 Coelho, Caio Augusto dos Santos 6 Aalst, M. K. van |
| Grupo | 1 2 3 4 5 CPT-CPT-INPE-MCT-BR |
| Afiliação | 1 2 Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, Netherlands 3 4 5 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) |
| Endereço de e-Mail do Autor | 1 2 3 4 5 caio@cptec.inpe.br |
| Endereço de e-Mail | caio@cptec.inpe.br |
| Revista | Journal of Climate |
| Volume | 22 |
| Número | 13 |
| Páginas | 3819-3837 |
| Nota Secundária | A1_ECOLOGIA_E_MEIO_AMBIENTE A1_ENGENHARIAS_I A1_GEOCIÊNCIAS A1_INTERDISCIPLINAR |
| Histórico (UTC) | 2009-12-23 14:00:43 :: lattes -> marciana :: 2010-04-16 18:03:15 :: marciana -> administrator :: 2021-02-10 18:35:12 :: administrator -> marciana :: 2009 |
| 3. Conteúdo e estrutura | |
| É a matriz ou uma cópia? | é a matriz |
| Estágio do Conteúdo | concluido |
| Transferível | 1 |
| Tipo do Conteúdo | External Contribution |
| Tipo de Versão | publisher |
| Resumo | This study investigates likely changes in mean and extreme precipitation over southern Africa in response to changes in radiative forcing using an ensemble of global climate models prepared for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Extreme seasonal precipitation is defined in terms of 10-yr return levels obtained by inverting a generalized Pareto distribution fitted to excesses above a predefined high threshold. Both present (control) and future climate precipitation extremes are estimated. The future-to-control climate ratio of 10-yr return levels is then used as an indicator for the likely changes in extreme seasonal precipitation. A Bayesian approach to multimodel ensembling is adopted. The relative weights assigned to each of the model simulations is determined from bias, convergence, and correlation. Using this method, the probable limits of the changes in mean and extreme precipitation are estimated from their posterior distribution. Over the western parts of southern Africa, an increase in the severity of dry extremes parallels a statistically significant decrease in mean precipitation during austral summer months. A notable delay in the onset of the rainy season is found in almost the entire region. An early cessation is found in many parts. This implies a statistically significant shortening of the rainy season. A substantial reduction in moisture influx from the southwestern Indian Ocean during austral spring is projected. This and the preaustral spring moisture deficits are possible mechanisms delaying the rainfall onset in southern Africa. A possible offshore (northeasterly) shift of the tropical-temperate cloud band is consistent with more severe droughts in the southwest of southern Africa and enhanced precipitation farther north in Zambia, Malawi, and northern Mozambique. This study shows that changes in the mean vary on relatively small spatial scales in southern Africa and differ between seasons. Changes in extremes often, but not always, parallel changes in the mean precipitation. |
| Área | MET |
| Arranjo | urlib.net > BDMCI > Fonds > Produção anterior à 2021 > CGCPT > Projected changes in... |
| Conteúdo da Pasta doc | acessar |
| Conteúdo da Pasta source | não têm arquivos |
| Conteúdo da Pasta agreement | não têm arquivos |
| 4. Condições de acesso e uso | |
| URL dos dados | http://urlib.net/ibi/J8LNKAN8RW/36KNKML |
| URL dos dados zipados | http://urlib.net/zip/J8LNKAN8RW/36KNKML |
| Idioma | en |
| Arquivo Alvo | Coelho_projected.pdf |
| Grupo de Usuários | administrator lattes marciana |
| Grupo de Leitores | administrator marciana |
| Visibilidade | shown |
| Política de Arquivamento | denypublisher6 allowfinaldraft |
| Permissão de Atualização | não transferida |
| 5. Fontes relacionadas | |
| Unidades Imediatamente Superiores | 8JMKD3MGPCW/3EUPEJL |
| Lista de Itens Citando | sid.inpe.br/bibdigital/2013/10.06.18.03 1 |
| Divulgação | WEBSCI; PORTALCAPES; AGU. |
| Acervo Hospedeiro | dpi.inpe.br/plutao@80/2008/08.19.15.01 |
| 6. Notas | |
| Campos Vazios | alternatejournal archivist callnumber copyholder copyright creatorhistory descriptionlevel format isbn keywords lineage mark mirrorrepository nextedition notes orcid parameterlist parentrepositories previousedition previouslowerunit progress project readpermission resumeid rightsholder schedulinginformation secondarydate session shorttitle sponsor subject tertiarymark tertiarytype typeofwork url |
| 7. Controle da descrição | |
| e-Mail (login) | marciana |
| atualizar | |